buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
Ravens @ Cowboys
Play: Ravens +4
Last week, I said the Cowboys were much overvalued laying three points to the Giants. Although the bet didn?t pan out, it has created another opportunity to go against the Cowboys, as the oddsmakers are forced to have to lay more than three to the Ravens, if the Cowboys were able to cover the three against the Giants. It doesn?t take many good games for Cowboys backers to jump on their bandwagon and thus inflate their price. Although betting against their inflated tag didn?t pan out last week, in my opinion, it is a long run profitable endeavor.
I still feel the Cowboys offense has a lot of question marks that have yet to be addressed. They were thoroughly dominated for most of the game last week against the Giants. Playing a better defense that they are less familiar with should only increase the vulnerability of this offense. Contrary to public belief, the Cowboys offense starts with their running game. Barber?s injury has put a damper on the Cowboys run game, and his health should once against materially limit his productivity this week. Although Choice has filled in nicely, he doesn?t have what it takes to get an edge against what I deem the best run defense in football. Expect the Ravens to shutdown the Cowboys ground game, and once again put the onus on a mistake and injured Romo to lead the charge. Expect the Ravens ability to put pressure on the quarterback coupled with their ability to create turnovers to cause problems for Romo and magnify his vulnerability in this fundamental aspect of the game. The last five above average defenses in which the Cowboys have faced, the Giants twice, the Redskins, Bucs, and Steelers were all able to slowdown and shutdown this offense. I see no reason to believe the Ravens defense can not do the same.
The Cowboys defense is getting progressively better, but I still feel they are still a bit too vulnerable defending the ground game to warrant top tier status. Although the Giants abandoned the ground game too early, don?t expect the Ravens to do they same. The combination of McGaehee and Mclain can wear down the speedy front seven, and take the pressure off of Flacco. Flacco has struggled against quality defenses, but has had his fair share of looks against such defenses, including last week against a very similar defense compared to the Cowboys.
The Ravens have been consistently undervalued on the road this season. Playing against a hot Cowboys team will surely allow this trend to continue. The reality is the Ravens are the better team, as the market perception of the disparity of the quality of both offenses is far from reality. Expect the Ravens tough defense and solid running game to make it hard for the Cowboys to win by a large margin.
Ravens @ Cowboys
Play: Under 39
I also like the Under in this game, as it appears that not only is the market overrating the Cowboys offense affecting the spread but also the total. As mentioned in the Ravens write up, the Cowboys offense has not proved capable of doing damage to a quality defense. They were dominated by the Steelers defense just two weeks ago, and expecting much of a structural change against a Ravens defense appears to be wishful thinking. Although the Cowboys run game will be overmatched, expect them to remain committed to the ground game throughout. Romo?s propensity for error and holding the ball to long should also encourage a more conservative passing attack that allows him to get the ball out early. If the Cowboys are able to put forth successful drives, the injury to Barber, their best redzone change, decreases the chances of them finishing off the drive with a touchdown.
Expect the Ravens to try to run the ball more than any other team this week. The last thing the Ravens want to do is have Flacco determine the game against an up and rising defense playing at home. Rather, they will try to have their defense and running game take control of their fate. The result should be similar to last week, with a bit more success. Expect a lot of prolong drives that chew up clock and grind out yards. However, points, especially touchdowns, will be hard to come by. The Cowboys ability to pressure the quarterback will also force Flacco into a conservative passing game plan.
The Cowboys recent run of four wins in their last five wins has been more predicated on good defense rather than good offense. The result has been four Unders during that time frame. Playing their toughest defense yet and a conservative offense makes me believe this trend has some sustainability. Both teams will struggle finding the end zone, making this many points simply too many points to expect.
Play: Ravens +4
Last week, I said the Cowboys were much overvalued laying three points to the Giants. Although the bet didn?t pan out, it has created another opportunity to go against the Cowboys, as the oddsmakers are forced to have to lay more than three to the Ravens, if the Cowboys were able to cover the three against the Giants. It doesn?t take many good games for Cowboys backers to jump on their bandwagon and thus inflate their price. Although betting against their inflated tag didn?t pan out last week, in my opinion, it is a long run profitable endeavor.
I still feel the Cowboys offense has a lot of question marks that have yet to be addressed. They were thoroughly dominated for most of the game last week against the Giants. Playing a better defense that they are less familiar with should only increase the vulnerability of this offense. Contrary to public belief, the Cowboys offense starts with their running game. Barber?s injury has put a damper on the Cowboys run game, and his health should once against materially limit his productivity this week. Although Choice has filled in nicely, he doesn?t have what it takes to get an edge against what I deem the best run defense in football. Expect the Ravens to shutdown the Cowboys ground game, and once again put the onus on a mistake and injured Romo to lead the charge. Expect the Ravens ability to put pressure on the quarterback coupled with their ability to create turnovers to cause problems for Romo and magnify his vulnerability in this fundamental aspect of the game. The last five above average defenses in which the Cowboys have faced, the Giants twice, the Redskins, Bucs, and Steelers were all able to slowdown and shutdown this offense. I see no reason to believe the Ravens defense can not do the same.
The Cowboys defense is getting progressively better, but I still feel they are still a bit too vulnerable defending the ground game to warrant top tier status. Although the Giants abandoned the ground game too early, don?t expect the Ravens to do they same. The combination of McGaehee and Mclain can wear down the speedy front seven, and take the pressure off of Flacco. Flacco has struggled against quality defenses, but has had his fair share of looks against such defenses, including last week against a very similar defense compared to the Cowboys.
The Ravens have been consistently undervalued on the road this season. Playing against a hot Cowboys team will surely allow this trend to continue. The reality is the Ravens are the better team, as the market perception of the disparity of the quality of both offenses is far from reality. Expect the Ravens tough defense and solid running game to make it hard for the Cowboys to win by a large margin.
Ravens @ Cowboys
Play: Under 39
I also like the Under in this game, as it appears that not only is the market overrating the Cowboys offense affecting the spread but also the total. As mentioned in the Ravens write up, the Cowboys offense has not proved capable of doing damage to a quality defense. They were dominated by the Steelers defense just two weeks ago, and expecting much of a structural change against a Ravens defense appears to be wishful thinking. Although the Cowboys run game will be overmatched, expect them to remain committed to the ground game throughout. Romo?s propensity for error and holding the ball to long should also encourage a more conservative passing attack that allows him to get the ball out early. If the Cowboys are able to put forth successful drives, the injury to Barber, their best redzone change, decreases the chances of them finishing off the drive with a touchdown.
Expect the Ravens to try to run the ball more than any other team this week. The last thing the Ravens want to do is have Flacco determine the game against an up and rising defense playing at home. Rather, they will try to have their defense and running game take control of their fate. The result should be similar to last week, with a bit more success. Expect a lot of prolong drives that chew up clock and grind out yards. However, points, especially touchdowns, will be hard to come by. The Cowboys ability to pressure the quarterback will also force Flacco into a conservative passing game plan.
The Cowboys recent run of four wins in their last five wins has been more predicated on good defense rather than good offense. The result has been four Unders during that time frame. Playing their toughest defense yet and a conservative offense makes me believe this trend has some sustainability. Both teams will struggle finding the end zone, making this many points simply too many points to expect.
